According to Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas anyway.
Seeing as Tesla insurance is only available in California and Tesla is merely acting as a broker of State National Insurance Corporation that is a massive valuation.
"So back to Jonas’s Tesla Insurance valuation. Take Tesla’s shares outstanding -- 990,015,158 -- and multiply those by $30, and what do you get? $29.7bn."
Jamie Powell Financial Times Aug 24th 2021
The bullish forecasts on embedded insurance and Elon Musk's long-term vision of autonomous vehicles, auto design, repair networks, and underwriting/insurance served by the best data and algorithms in the business, a global vehicle parc of Tesla owned/leased vehicles one day being upgraded to robotaxi fleets the valuation may not unwarranted.
What do you think?
Link to full FT article below.
Apart from that Total Recall-esque fantasy, we were particularly drawn to Jonas’s sum-of-the-parts breakdown of his Tesla valuation. With our emphasis: Our PT of $900 is comprised of 6 components: (1) $375/share for core Tesla Auto business on 5.6mm units in 2030, 8% WACC, 14x2030 exit EBITDA multiple, exit EBITDA margin of 20%. (2) Tesla Mobility at $75 on DCF with 500k cars at $1.7/mile by 2030. (3) Tesla as a 3rd party powertrain supplier at $88/share. 4) Energy at $78/share. 5) Insurance at $30/share. & 6) Network Services at $255, 17mm connected fleet, $100 ARPU by 2030,20% discount