Viewing he future through different eyes you get different answers. Plus there is a difference in motivation to be expected between today's drivers and those in ten years time. 

Don't forget the impact of legislation as well; driving through London is a nightmare for professional black taxi drivers never mind car owners as the Major of London's plans cause road closures, more delays and pressure people to use public transport, cycle or walk. 

Meanwhile, Volkswagen is looking into subscriptions, at a cost that the company estimates at about $8.5 per hour. From the second quarter of 2022, Volkswagen estimates that it would be ready to offer owners of its ID.3 and ID.4 electric vehicles certain subscriptions, such as more range, more features or entertainment systems for charging times, which would be available by the hour at a given cost. The idea is complex, because it involves the company from which you purchased your vehicle turning certain features on or off in your vehicle, which implies, in the analysis many users might make, not that they allow you to access them when you pay, but that they deprive you of them when you don’t pay, something car users are not used to. 

KINTO is Toyota’s challenge for new mobility services and part of Toyota’s global vision to develop into a mobility company by providing various services related to transportation to people worldwide. Toyota KINTO aims to give people the freedom to move, whenever they want, wherever they are, with a solution that is smart, easy to use and kind to the environment.

You can see Tesla refurbishing vehicles sold to owners, upgrading the software and releasing as robotaxi fleets. All in a virtuous lifecycle in which data and software drives the way in which Teslas are used, serviced, repaired and insured. 

It is true that many people desire to own a vehicle. enjoy driving and will not succumb to mobility as a service. But it is equally true that as the cost of subscription drops and the cost of owning rises that motivations change.

Smart streets and highways, smart cities and towns, smart and convenient and clean and secure robotaxis and the realisation that a car sitting for 90% to 97% of its time in home drives, work or city centre car parks is a wasting asset all lead to subscription becoming more the norm.

Impacting car manufacturers and component suppliers, auto dealerships and repair networks. The car and battery platforms and software stacks will be dominated by a few major vendors some of which will license those stacks.

Whilst it is hard to predict when, where or how this will impact all the parties involved it is easy to predict the changes will be massive and disruptive.